Shop price inflation falls to lowest since 2021

Shop price inflation has fallen to its lowest level since 2021, driven down by grocery bills and rekindling hopes for summer interest rate cuts.

According to data released by British Retail Consortium (BRC) today (30), shop price annual inflation eased to 0.8 per cent in April, down from 1.3 per cent in March. This is below the 3-month average rate of 1.4 per cent. Shop price annual growth is its lowest since December 2021.

Food inflation decelerated to 3.4 per cent in April, down from 3.7 per cent in March. This is below the 3-month average rate of 3.9 per cent and is the 12^th consecutive deceleration in the food category. Inflation is its lowest since March 2022. Fresh Food inflation slowed further in April, to 2.4 per cent, down from 2.6 per cent in March.

Ambient Food inflation decelerated to 4.9 per cent in April, down from 5.2 per cent in March.

Reacting on the figures, Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said, “One year on from the peak, shop price inflation levels are showing signs of normalising, providing relief to households. Both food and non-food have seen shop inflation rates ease to more manageable levels. In April, non-food prices fell, especially in clothing and footwear, where retailers ramped up promotions to encourage consumer spend. Food inflation slowed for the 12th consecutive month, as fresh products such as butter, fish and fruits, continued to fall in price due to easing input costs and intense competition between grocers.”

“While consumers will welcome the lower shop price inflation, geopolitical tensions and the knock-on impact on commodity prices, like oil, pose a threat to future price stability. Retailers will continue to do all they can to keep prices down, but Government has a role to play with pro-growth policies that allow businesses to invest in the customer offer.”

Mike Watkins, Head of Retailer and Business Insight, NielsenIQ, said, “Whilst topline retail growth has slowed since in recent weeks as food inflation has fallen, it is good news for shoppers that the cost of their grocery shop is starting to stabilise and that the prices of many non-food goods are now cheaper than a year ago. To help shoppers manage household budgets, retailers continue to promote and this provides further savings and we expect this to continue to help drive overall demand.”